Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold LYON (60%) · LYON at 62¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29

Invictus Gaming39¢LYON61¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LYON

Consensus Traders

LYON 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$69.52

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 61.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLYON at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LYON

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming39%

LYON62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LYON3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,303

Combined PnL-$56.86

Invictus Gaming2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,055

Combined PnL+$126.38

LYON — 60%Invictus Gaming — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on LYON. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLYON 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLYON 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000LYON 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Reformedx	LYONavg 63¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$75	52% 788-732 (1520)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Invictus Gamingavg 36¢	$945	$1.0K	+$65.63	50% 1224-1217 (2441)
StudyPrediction	LYONavg 61¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$8.21	53% 4542-3955 (8497)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Invictus Gamingavg 36¢	$2.4K	$935.55	+$60.75	57% 1081-806 (1887)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	LYONavg 64.1¢	$413.43	$416.38	+$18.9	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 64.1¢	$320.61	$304.99	+$1.89
└ Invictus Gaming leg	Invictus Gamingavg 30¢	$92.82	$111.38	+$17.02
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	LYONavg 63¢	$417.04	$403.8	+$9.93	47% 2405-2688 (5093)

Reformedx

LYON

Invested

$3,149.97

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$75

Record

52%

788-732 (1520)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$945

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$65.63

Record

50%

1224-1217 (2441)

StudyPrediction

LYON

Invested

$1,001.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.21

Record

53%

4542-3955 (8497)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$2,430

Value

$935.55

PnL

+$60.75

Record

57%

1081-806 (1887)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

LYON

Invested

$413.43

Value

$416.38

PnL

+$18.9

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

Both legs:

LYON$320.6164.1¢+$1.89

Invictus Gaming$92.8230¢+$17.02

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

LYON

Invested

$417.04

Value

$403.8

PnL

+$9.93

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

Research grade

NeutralLYON at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LYON

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on LYON. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLYON 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLYON 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000LYON 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LYON wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.