LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (56%) · Gen.G at 72¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 8

Invictus Gaming28¢Gen.G72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 56%

Total Value

$31.2K

Combined PnL

-$240.85

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 71.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming28%

Gen.G72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G5 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares36,742

Combined PnL-$31.19

Invictus Gaming4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares17,157

Combined PnL-$209.66

Gen.G — 56%Invictus Gaming — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Invictus Gaming) and the top 1000 (6 on Gen.G) disagree here.

ctrGen.G 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedInvictus Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Gen.Gavg 71.9¢	$24.5K	$17.5K	-$90.96	64% 49-27 (76)
KateBollinger	Gen.Gavg 71¢	$7.1K	$7.1K	+$50	68% 1824-863 (2687)
jodarCTR	Invictus Gamingavg 30¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$179.1	63% 25-15 (40)
ryou999CTR	Invictus Gamingavg 29¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$24.4	43% 20-27 (47)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.88	57% 1128-842 (1970)
BasquetipsterCTR	Invictus Gamingavg 30¢	$143.86	$134.14	-$7.19	53% 1791-1560 (3351)
38 38791873984189<$100	Gen.Gavg 71.9¢	$89.37	$88.28	-$1.09	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
GH ghorrock<$100	Gen.Gavg 70.6¢	$73.19	$74.17	+$0.98	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 27¢	$29.26	$30.29	+$1.03	52% 9014-8167 (17181)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Gen.G

Invested

$24,537.97

Value

$17.5K

PnL

-$90.96

Record

64%

49-27 (76)

KateBollinger

Gen.G

Invested

$7,099.99

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$50

Record

68%

1824-863 (2687)

jodarCTR

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$3,485.1

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$179.1

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

ryou999CTR

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$1,440.85

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$24.4

Record

43%

20-27 (47)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$1,402.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$9.88

Record

57%

1128-842 (1970)

BasquetipsterCTR

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$143.86

Value

$134.14

PnL

-$7.19

Record

53%

1791-1560 (3351)

38791873984189<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$89.37

Value

$88.28

PnL

-$1.09

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

ghorrock<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$73.19

Value

$74.17

PnL

+$0.98

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$29.26

Value

$30.29

PnL

+$1.03

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Invictus Gaming) and the top 1000 (6 on Gen.G) disagree here.

ctrGen.G 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedInvictus Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.