LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (56%) · Gen.G at 72¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Invictus Gaming28¢Gen.G72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 56%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$28.19

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming28%

Gen.G72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,531

Combined PnL+$29.2

Invictus Gaming4 traders

Total Value$57.47

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$1.02

Gen.G — 56%Invictus Gaming — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Invictus Gaming) and the top 1000 (8 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleInvictus Gaming 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrGen.G 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedInvictus Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Gen.Gavg 71¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$27.01	64% 49-27 (76)
GH ghorrock<$100	Gen.Gavg 71.2¢	$49.2	$49.09	+$0.24	58% 21639-15721 (37360)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100	Gen.Gavg 69¢	$44.52	$45.81	+$1.61	54% 1378-1188 (2566)
BasquetipsterCTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 30¢	$46.6	$45	-$0.78	53% 1790-1560 (3350)
38 38791873984189<$100	Gen.Gavg 71¢	$84.93	$44.2	+$0.27	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Gen.Gavg 71¢	$8.5	$8.57	+$0.07	52% 8958-8128 (17086)
ryou999CTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 30¢	$6.91	$6.67	-$0.11	43% 20-27 (47)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 30¢	$4.5	$4.35	-$0.07	46% 8745-10440 (19185)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.45	-$0.05	50% 21519-21799 (43318)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Gen.G

Invested

$3,771.82

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$27.01

Record

64%

49-27 (76)

ghorrock<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$49.2

Value

$49.09

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

21639-15721 (37360)

TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$44.52

Value

$45.81

PnL

+$1.61

Record

54%

1378-1188 (2566)

BasquetipsterCTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$46.6

Value

$45

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

1790-1560 (3350)

38791873984189<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$84.93

Value

$44.2

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

ameisgoat11<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

ryou999CTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$0.11

Record

43%

20-27 (47)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

8745-10440 (19185)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Invictus Gaming) and the top 1000 (8 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleInvictus Gaming 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrGen.G 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedInvictus Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.