LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (80%) · Gen.G at 81¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 8

Invictus Gaming20¢Gen.G80¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 80%

Total Value

$43.0K

Combined PnL

$133.14

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming20%

Gen.G81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G8 traders

Total Value$42.7K

Total Shares53,380

Combined PnL+$152.88

Invictus Gaming2 traders

Total Value$295.62

Total Shares1,516

Combined PnL-$19.74

Gen.G — 80%Invictus Gaming — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Invictus Gaming) and the top 1000 (8 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleGen.G 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrGen.G 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedInvictus Gaming 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$25.4K	$25.4K	+$0	53% 1353-1176 (2529)
vtcchampion52	Gen.Gavg 80.2¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$48.63	49% 1157-1228 (2385)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$31.29	65% 44-24 (68)
NI niceqqqqq3	Gen.Gavg 79¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$75.28	42% 38-52 (90)
SH shibagegeCTR	Invictus Gamingavg 20.8¢	$312	$292.5	-$19.5	52% 197-182 (379)
OM omnibus-076daa	Gen.Gavg 81.8¢	$279.89	$273.84	-$1.71	50% 21182-21443 (42625)
Basquetipster	Gen.Gavg 81.8¢	$100.95	$98.77	-$0.62	53% 1784-1559 (3343)
38 38791873984189<$100	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$80	$80	+$0	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
GH ghorrock<$100	Gen.Gavg 80¢	$15.18	$15.18	-$0	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 21.8¢	$3.49	$3.12	-$0.24	46% 8594-10246 (18840)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Gen.G

Invested

$25,444.46

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1353-1176 (2529)

vtcchampion52

Gen.G

Invested

$7,794.71

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$48.63

Record

49%

1157-1228 (2385)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Gen.G

Invested

$5,005.93

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$31.29

Record

65%

44-24 (68)

niceqqqqq3

Gen.G

Invested

$3,964.98

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$75.28

Record

42%

38-52 (90)

shibagegeCTR

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$312

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$19.5

Record

52%

197-182 (379)

omnibus-076daa

Gen.G

Invested

$279.89

Value

$273.84

PnL

-$1.71

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

Basquetipster

Gen.G

Invested

$100.95

Value

$98.77

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

1784-1559 (3343)

38791873984189<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$80

Value

$80

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

ghorrock<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$15.18

Value

$15.18

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0.24

Record

46%

8594-10246 (18840)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Invictus Gaming) and the top 1000 (8 on Gen.G) disagree here.

whaleGen.G 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrGen.G 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedInvictus Gaming 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.