Games Total: O/U 2.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$2.9K
$123.84
58.7¢ → 59¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM am100 | Underavg 59¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$79.52 | 55% 1155-932 (2087) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 58¢ | $986.29 | $1.0K | +$17 | 47% 2470-2777 (5247) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 59¢ | $294.99 | $312.49 | +$17.5 | 53% 5577-4939 (10516) |
 Socialista | Underavg 59¢ | $155.38 | $164.59 | +$9.22 | 63% 2696-1599 (4295) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 59.5¢ | $11.9 | $12.5 | +$0.6 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
Invested
$1,359.13
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$79.52
Record
55%
1155-932 (2087)
Invested
$986.29
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$17
Record
47%
2470-2777 (5247)
Invested
$294.99
Value
$312.49
PnL
+$17.5
Record
53%
5577-4939 (10516)
SocialistaInvested
$155.38
Value
$164.59
PnL
+$9.22
Record
63%
2696-1599 (4295)
Invested
$11.9
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.