LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hanwha Life Esports (50%) · Hanwha Life Esports at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Hanwha Life Esports
4
Hanwha Life Esports 50%
$3.3K
-$47.83
72¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralHanwha Life Esports at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM am100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 72¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$12.64 | 55% 1155-932 (2087) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | G2 Esportsavg 29.5¢ | $3.9K | $1.1K | -$37.28 | 70% 37-16 (53) |
 Basquetipster | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 72¢ | $300 | $300 | +$2.08 | 68% 1662-766 (2428) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | G2 Esports | $57.57 | $57.57 | +$0 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
Invested
$1,820.1
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$12.64
Record
55%
1155-932 (2087)
Invested
$3,855.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$37.28
Record
70%
37-16 (53)
BasquetipsterInvested
$300
Value
$300
PnL
+$2.08
Record
68%
1662-766 (2428)
Invested
$57.57
Value
$57.57
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.