Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$364.24

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,903

Combined PnL+$460.26

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,386

Combined PnL-$96.02

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE delacsynzy1	Overavg 50.2¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$339.46	51% 456-431 (887)
StudyPredictionCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$100	53% 4578-3991 (8569)
iceblue-CTR	Underavg 52.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$8.4	43% 809-1077 (1886)
NE newwman	Overavg 91.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$92.41	53% 898-800 (1698)
A8 a8999CTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$219.12	44% 1089-1394 (2483)
SB sbimbg	Overavg 46¢	$472.42	$482.69	+$10.27	70% 3144-1356 (4500)
PI PIPIZIN	Overavg 52.1¢	$265.1	$282.66	+$17.57	52% 419-392 (811)
FR fraagenCTR	Underavg 52¢	$260	$265	+$5	46% 54-63 (117)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$44.06	$53.76	+$9.7	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$45.46	$27.68	+$0.13	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 96.3¢	$14.76	$15.18	+$0.42	67% 23292-11694 (34986)

delacsynzy1

Over

Invested

$2,051

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$339.46

Record

51%

456-431 (887)

StudyPredictionCTR

Under

Invested

$1,900

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$100

Record

53%

4578-3991 (8569)

iceblue-CTR

Under

Invested

$1,431.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$8.4

Record

43%

809-1077 (1886)

newwman

Over

Invested

$1,129.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$92.41

Record

53%

898-800 (1698)

a8999CTR

Under

Invested

$1,423.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$219.12

Record

44%

1089-1394 (2483)

sbimbg

Over

Invested

$472.42

Value

$482.69

PnL

+$10.27

Record

70%

3144-1356 (4500)

PIPIZIN

Over

Invested

$265.1

Value

$282.66

PnL

+$17.57

Record

52%

419-392 (811)

fraagenCTR

Under

Invested

$260

Value

$265

PnL

+$5

Record

46%

54-63 (117)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.06

Value

$53.76

PnL

+$9.7

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$45.46

Value

$27.68

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$14.76

Value

$15.18

PnL

+$0.42

Record

67%

23292-11694 (34986)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.