LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hanwha Life Esports (80%) · Hanwha Life Esports at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Hanwha Life Esports
5
Hanwha Life Esports 80%
$3.8K
$23.33
69.2¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralHanwha Life Esports at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 69¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$50 | 53% 4576-3990 (8566) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | G2 Esportsavg 29.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$29.51 | 70% 37-16 (53) |
LO lonmi2511 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 69¢ | $802.98 | $808.8 | +$5.82 | 62% 1127-682 (1809) |
AM am100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 70¢ | $440.41 | $449.85 | -$3.15 | 55% 1155-932 (2087) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 70.3¢ | $10.55 | $10.72 | +$0.17 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,380
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$50
Record
53%
4576-3990 (8566)
Invested
$1,136.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$29.51
Record
70%
37-16 (53)
Invested
$802.98
Value
$808.8
PnL
+$5.82
Record
62%
1127-682 (1809)
Invested
$440.41
Value
$449.85
PnL
-$3.15
Record
55%
1155-932 (2087)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$10.72
PnL
+$0.17
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.