LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hanwha Life Esports (80%) · Hanwha Life Esports at 79¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Hanwha Life Esports
5
Hanwha Life Esports 80%
1 arb excluded
$21.3K
-$213.4
79¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralHanwha Life Esports at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Hanwha Life Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drunkdegenerate | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 79¢ | $11.8K | $11.6K | -$300 | 54% 191-162 (353) |
VI vibing123 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 79¢ | $7.1K | $6.9K | -$135.19 | 52% 1531-1415 (2946) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | G2 Esportsavg 20¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$231.08 | 67% 29-14 (43) |
DA dancingmonkey1ARB<$100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 74.9¢ | $712.67 | $781.03 | +$30.73 | 54% 1234-1069 (2303) |
| └ Hanwha Life Esports leg | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 74.9¢ | $519.12 | $533.72 | +$14.6 | |
| └ G2 Esports leg | G2 Esportsavg 18¢ | $193.55 | $247.31 | +$16.13 | |
 Basquetipster | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 80¢ | $249.96 | $240.59 | -$9.37 | 69% 1651-759 (2410) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 76¢ | $5.7 | $5.78 | +$0.08 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$11,850
Value
$11.6K
PnL
-$300
Record
54%
191-162 (353)
Invested
$7,120.35
Value
$6.9K
PnL
-$135.19
Record
52%
1531-1415 (2946)
Invested
$1,567.69
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$231.08
Record
67%
29-14 (43)
Invested
$712.67
Value
$781.03
PnL
+$30.73
Record
54%
1234-1069 (2303)
Both legs:
BasquetipsterInvested
$249.96
Value
$240.59
PnL
-$9.37
Record
69%
1651-759 (2410)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.78
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.