Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$3.2K
-$13.27
52.8¢ → 55¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Underavg 52.8¢ | $5.7K | $3.0K | -$14.88 | 57% 1090-812 (1902) |
AM am100 | Underavg 54.4¢ | $122.98 | $124.38 | +$1.41 | 55% 1159-934 (2093) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $57.56 | $57.56 | +$0 | 53% 5631-4970 (10601) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $5.3 | +$0.2 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$5,709
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$14.88
Record
57%
1090-812 (1902)
Invested
$122.98
Value
$124.38
PnL
+$1.41
Record
55%
1159-934 (2093)
Invested
$57.56
Value
$57.56
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5631-4970 (10601)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.3
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.