Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 45¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$5.0K
$1.45
45.4¢ → 45¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$0 | 50% 1232-1226 (2458) |
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $2.7K | $1.2K | +$40.32 | 57% 1090-812 (1902) |
SP spartachio | Underavg 52.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$7.7 | 48% 699-753 (1452) |
AM am100CTR | Overavg 46.9¢ | $780.24 | $749.08 | -$31.16 | 55% 1159-934 (2093) |
Invested
$1,813.79
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1232-1226 (2458)
Invested
$2,673
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$40.32
Record
57%
1090-812 (1902)
Invested
$1,170.29
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$7.7
Record
48%
699-753 (1452)
Invested
$780.24
Value
$749.08
PnL
-$31.16
Record
55%
1159-934 (2093)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.