Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
$3.4K
-$326.13
54.5¢ → 100¢
+83% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Overavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$230 | 50% 1233-1229 (2462) |
NE newwman | Underavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $792.62 | -$367.3 | 53% 901-804 (1705) |
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $698.96 | $699.31 | +$0.35 | 98% 13229-211 (13440) |
 StudyPrediction | Underavg 44¢ | $440 | $335 | -$105 | 53% 4585-4002 (8587) |
CC ccllar | Underavg 43.8¢ | $206.93 | $158.12 | -$48.81 | 46% 437-504 (941) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Underavg 43.9¢ | $110 | $83.98 | -$26.02 | 59% 30541-21260 (51801) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 43.3¢ | $39.28 | $20.26 | -$6.05 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $10 | $6.7 | -$3.3 | 67% 23397-11771 (35168) |
Invested
$1,100
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$230
Record
50%
1233-1229 (2462)
Invested
$1,159.92
Value
$792.62
PnL
-$367.3
Record
53%
901-804 (1705)
Invested
$698.96
Value
$699.31
PnL
+$0.35
Record
98%
13229-211 (13440)
StudyPredictionInvested
$440
Value
$335
PnL
-$105
Record
53%
4585-4002 (8587)
Invested
$206.93
Value
$158.12
PnL
-$48.81
Record
46%
437-504 (941)
Invested
$110
Value
$83.98
PnL
-$26.02
Record
59%
30541-21260 (51801)
Invested
$39.28
Value
$20.26
PnL
-$6.05
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$10
Value
$6.7
PnL
-$3.3
Record
67%
23397-11771 (35168)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.