Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
$174.88
81.6¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$1.13 | 98% 13229-211 (13440) |
DE delacsynzy1 | Overavg 57.3¢ | $973 | $1.1K | +$164.22 | 51% 463-440 (903) |
A8 a8999ARB<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $248.46 | $275.61 | +$28.72 | 44% 1095-1401 (2496) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $138.46 | $141.61 | +$4.72 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55¢ | $110 | $134 | +$24 | |
GT gt7238CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $249.73 | $249.73 | +$8.32 | 45% 621-758 (1379) |
NE newwman<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $2.65 | $3.95 | +$1.2 | 53% 901-804 (1705) |
Invested
$2,255.9
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.13
Record
98%
13229-211 (13440)
Invested
$973
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$164.22
Record
51%
463-440 (903)
Invested
$248.46
Value
$275.61
PnL
+$28.72
Record
44%
1095-1401 (2496)
Both legs:
Invested
$249.73
Value
$249.73
PnL
+$8.32
Record
45%
621-758 (1379)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$1.2
Record
53%
901-804 (1705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.