LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hanwha Life Esports (40%) · Hanwha Life Esports at 56¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Hanwha Life Esports
5
Hanwha Life Esports 40%
$8.9K
-$0.92
56¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralHanwha Life Esports at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Hanwha Life Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 56¢ | $4.8K | $4.7K | -$42.55 | 57% 1090-812 (1902) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$43.52 | 66% 39-20 (59) |
AM am100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 56¢ | $212.6 | $210.71 | -$1.9 | 55% 1159-934 (2093) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢ | $80.61 | $80.61 | -$0 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.2 | +$0 | 48% 2404-2633 (5037) |
Invested
$4,765.6
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$42.55
Record
57%
1090-812 (1902)
Invested
$3,830.13
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$43.52
Record
66%
39-20 (59)
Invested
$212.6
Value
$210.71
PnL
-$1.9
Record
55%
1159-934 (2093)
Invested
$80.61
Value
$80.61
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2404-2633 (5037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.