Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bilibili Gaming, while the market favors Hanwha Life Esports (61%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (69%) · Bilibili Gaming at 40¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 1

Hanwha Life Esports61¢Bilibili Gaming39¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 69%

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

$55.58

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 39.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Hanwha Life Esports 61%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hanwha Life Esports61%

Bilibili Gaming40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming9 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares32,203

Combined PnL+$27.46

Hanwha Life Esports4 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares11,922

Combined PnL+$28.12

Bilibili Gaming — 69%Hanwha Life Esports — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hanwha Life Esports) and the top 1000 (13 on Bilibili Gaming) disagree here.

whaleBilibili Gaming 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedHanwha Life Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 39¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$49.99	54% 1218-1024 (2242)
FO forget4	Hanwha Life Esportsavg 60¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$26.19	44% 692-892 (1584)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 40¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$37.5	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
arjennnnn	Hanwha Life Esportsavg 60¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$22.22	70% 817-353 (1170)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 39¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$29.18	47% 2487-2794 (5281)
JO johnsonboyyCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 40¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$20.09	43% 40-53 (93)
iceblue-	Hanwha Life Esportsavg 61.8¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$22.79	43% 814-1081 (1895)
DA dancingmonkey1CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 39.8¢	$549.69	$552.79	+$3.1	53% 1247-1085 (2332)
MP mpyhCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 39¢	$521.94	$535.32	+$13.38	69% 1152-522 (1674)
HRTradingCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 40¢	$450	$444.38	-$5.63	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 40¢	$400	$400	-$5	53% 5590-4952 (10542)
GG GGLPL	Hanwha Life Esportsavg 60¢	$300	$302.5	+$2.5	50% 678-674 (1352)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.98	+$0.03	47% 2324-2589 (4913)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$3,899.59

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$49.99

Record

54%

1218-1024 (2242)

forget4

Hanwha Life Esports

Invested

$3,142.93

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$26.19

Record

44%

692-892 (1584)

justaluckydudeCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$37.5

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

arjennnnn

Hanwha Life Esports

Invested

$2,666.66

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$22.22

Record

70%

817-353 (1170)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$2,275.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$29.18

Record

47%

2487-2794 (5281)

johnsonboyyCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,607.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$20.09

Record

43%

40-53 (93)

iceblue-

Hanwha Life Esports

Invested

$1,075.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$22.79

Record

43%

814-1081 (1895)

dancingmonkey1CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$549.69

Value

$552.79

PnL

+$3.1

Record

53%

1247-1085 (2332)

mpyhCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$521.94

Value

$535.32

PnL

+$13.38

Record

69%

1152-522 (1674)

HRTradingCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$450

Value

$444.38

PnL

-$5.63

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$400

Value

$400

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5590-4952 (10542)

GGLPL

Hanwha Life Esports

Invested

$300

Value

$302.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

678-674 (1352)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

2324-2589 (4913)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Hanwha Life Esports 61%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hanwha Life Esports) and the top 1000 (13 on Bilibili Gaming) disagree here.

whaleBilibili Gaming 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedHanwha Life Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.