LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Frank Esports (BO5) - LCP Promotion Playoffs
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ground Zero Gaming (57%) · Ground Zero Gaming at 81¢ · $257 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Ground Zero Gaming
7
Ground Zero Gaming 57%
$257.19
$1.32
79.3¢ → 80.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGround Zero Gaming at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Ground Zero Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR freeman123 | Ground Zero Gamingavg 78¢ | $182.02 | $186.68 | +$4.67 | 7% 5-69 (74) |
7V 7ViziCapitale<$100 | Ground Zero Gamingavg 84.3¢ | $48.8 | $45.76 | -$3.05 | — 3-9 (12) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Ground Zero Gamingavg 80¢ | $15.91 | $15.88 | -$0.04 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Ground Zero Gamingavg 80¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 | 26% 185-522 (707) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Frank Esportsavg 20¢ | $2.08 | $2.19 | +$0.1 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
UB ubetteruuuuCTR<$100 | Frank Esportsavg 24¢ | $2.4 | $2 | -$0.4 | 11% 13-104 (117) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Frank Esportsavg 19¢ | $0.65 | $0.69 | +$0.03 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$182.02
Value
$186.68
PnL
+$4.67
Record
7%
5-69 (74)
Invested
$48.8
Value
$45.76
PnL
-$3.05
Record
—
3-9 (12)
Invested
$15.91
Value
$15.88
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$4
Value
$4
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
185-522 (707)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.4
Record
11%
13-104 (117)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.