LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 3 Winner

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (50%) · Gen.G at 82¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Gen.G82¢LYON18¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 50%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$26.33

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Gen.G82%

LYON19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G3 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,737

Combined PnL-$21.38

LYON3 traders

Total Value$631.35

Total Shares3,413

Combined PnL-$4.95

Gen.G — 50%LYON — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LYON) and the top 1000 (5 on Gen.G) disagree here.

ctrLYON 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedLYON 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 81.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$2.96	57% 1097-822 (1919)
AM am100	Gen.Gavg 80.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$25.34	55% 1167-944 (2111)
VeryLucky888CTR	LYONavg 18.7¢	$558.72	$551.56	-$7.16	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
PL pltrkr111	Gen.Gavg 81¢	$160.68	$161.67	+$0.99	54% 749-630 (1379)
25 254321758CTR<$100	LYONavg 17¢	$39.04	$42.48	+$3.44	69% 451-205 (656)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	LYONavg 19.1¢	$38.54	$37.3	-$1.24	47% 13319-14853 (28172)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$2,340.97

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$2.96

Record

57%

1097-822 (1919)

am100

Gen.G

Invested

$1,338.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$25.34

Record

55%

1167-944 (2111)

VeryLucky888CTR

LYON

Invested

$558.72

Value

$551.56

PnL

-$7.16

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

pltrkr111

Gen.G

Invested

$160.68

Value

$161.67

PnL

+$0.99

Record

54%

749-630 (1379)

254321758CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$39.04

Value

$42.48

PnL

+$3.44

Record

69%

451-205 (656)

38791873984189CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$38.54

Value

$37.3

PnL

-$1.24

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LYON) and the top 1000 (5 on Gen.G) disagree here.

ctrLYON 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedLYON 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.