LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (67%) · Gen.G at 82¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Gen.G82¢LYON18¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 67%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$2.96

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Gen.G82%

LYON19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,646

Combined PnL+$5.67

LYON2 traders

Total Value$582.36

Total Shares3,148

Combined PnL-$8.63

Gen.G — 67%LYON — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LYON) and the top 1000 (5 on Gen.G) disagree here.

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLYON 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedLYON 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 81.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$5.47	57% 1097-822 (1919)
AM am100	Gen.Gavg 80.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$1.31	55% 1167-944 (2111)
VeryLucky888CTR	LYONavg 18.7¢	$561.56	$554.33	-$7.23	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Gen.Gavg 80.8¢	$71.22	$71.86	+$0.64	54% 749-630 (1379)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	LYONavg 19.4¢	$29.43	$28.03	-$1.4	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69<$100	Gen.Gavg 77¢	$14.95	$15.73	+$0.87	67% 41-20 (61)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$2,338.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$5.47

Record

57%

1097-822 (1919)

am100

Gen.G

Invested

$1,339.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$1.31

Record

55%

1167-944 (2111)

VeryLucky888CTR

LYON

Invested

$561.56

Value

$554.33

PnL

-$7.23

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

pltrkr111<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$71.22

Value

$71.86

PnL

+$0.64

Record

54%

749-630 (1379)

38791873984189CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$29.43

Value

$28.03

PnL

-$1.4

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$14.95

Value

$15.73

PnL

+$0.87

Record

67%

41-20 (61)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LYON) and the top 1000 (5 on Gen.G) disagree here.

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLYON 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedLYON 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.