LoL: FENNEL vs Nothin'Here - Game 3 Winner

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FENNEL (40%) · FENNEL at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

FENNEL66¢Nothin'Here34¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FENNEL

Consensus Traders

FENNEL 40%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$28.66

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 66¢

-21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFENNEL at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FENNEL66%

Nothin'Here34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FENNEL2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,060

Combined PnL+$28.37

Nothin'Here3 traders

Total Value$2.71

Total Shares16

Combined PnL+$0.28

FENNEL — 40%Nothin'Here — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FENNEL. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nothin'Here) and the top 1000 (4 on FENNEL) disagree here.

sniperFENNEL 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNothin'Here 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNothin'Here 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FENNEL 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO ColdBlooded	FENNELavg 83¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$28.32	— 4-1 (5)
38 38791873984189	FENNELavg 84¢	$191.45	$191.5	+$0.05	48% 603-645 (1248)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 14¢	$1.28	$1.51	+$0.23	47% 171-192 (363)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.83	-$0.02	20% 113-461 (574)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 13¢	$0.3	$0.38	+$0.08	51% 197-186 (383)

ColdBlooded

FENNEL

Invested

$2,350.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$28.32

Record

—

4-1 (5)

38791873984189

FENNEL

Invested

$191.45

Value

$191.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

NeutralFENNEL at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FENNEL. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nothin'Here) and the top 1000 (4 on FENNEL) disagree here.

sniperFENNEL 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNothin'Here 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNothin'Here 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FENNEL 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FENNEL wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.