LoL: FENNEL vs Nothin'Here - Game 2 Winner

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold FENNEL (18%) · FENNEL at 68¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

FENNEL68¢Nothin'Here32¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FENNEL

Consensus Traders

FENNEL 18%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$561.67

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 67.5¢

-13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFENNEL at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FENNEL68%

Nothin'Here33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FENNEL2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares7,467

Combined PnL-$781.24

Nothin'Here9 traders

Total Value$861.88

Total Shares2,004

Combined PnL+$219.56

FENNEL — 18%Nothin'Here — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO ColdBlooded	FENNELavg 78.1¢	$5.5K	$4.8K	-$740.48	— 4-1 (5)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Nothin'Hereavg 33¢	$237.22	$309.17	+$71.96	16% 7-36 (43)
GT gt7238CTR	Nothin'Hereavg 32¢	$219.19	$294.54	+$75.35	2% 7-438 (445)
BR brobrobrobrobro	FENNELavg 67.3¢	$307.62	$266.86	-$40.76	4% 1-26 (27)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Nothin'Hereavg 32¢	$156.63	$210.48	+$53.84	20% 68-273 (341)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 31¢	$16.47	$22.85	+$6.38	56% 3771-2936 (6707)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 23.8¢	$7.15	$12.9	+$5.75	52% 210-197 (407)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 31¢	$3.1	$4.3	+$1.2	27% 137-362 (499)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 14¢	$1.31	$4.01	+$2.71	46% 178-207 (385)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 16¢	$0.8	$2.15	+$1.35	20% 116-466 (582)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 13¢	$0.45	$1.48	+$1.03	48% 644-687 (1331)

ColdBlooded

FENNEL

Invested

$5,509.6

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$740.48

Record

—

4-1 (5)

VVVSSPCTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$237.22

Value

$309.17

PnL

+$71.96

Record

16%

7-36 (43)

gt7238CTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$219.19

Value

$294.54

PnL

+$75.35

Record

7-438 (445)

brobrobrobrobro

FENNEL

Invested

$307.62

Value

$266.86

PnL

-$40.76

Record

1-26 (27)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$156.63

Value

$210.48

PnL

+$53.84

Record

20%

68-273 (341)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$16.47

Value

$22.85

PnL

+$6.38

Record

56%

3771-2936 (6707)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$7.15

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$5.75

Record

52%

210-197 (407)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$1.2

Record

27%

137-362 (499)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$1.31

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$2.71

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$0.8

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$1.35

Record

20%

116-466 (582)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$1.03

Record

48%

644-687 (1331)

Research grade

NeutralFENNEL at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FENNEL wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.