LoL: FENNEL vs Nothin'Here (BO5) - LCP Promotion Playoffs
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FENNEL (50%) · FENNEL at 94¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
FENNEL
6
FENNEL 50%
$11.8K
$181.64
93.3¢ → 93.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFENNEL at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on FENNEL. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO ColdBlooded | FENNELavg 93¢ | $9.5K | $9.7K | +$205.11 | — 4-1 (5) |
FR freeman123 | FENNELavg 95¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0 | 7% 5-68 (73) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | FENNELavg 94¢ | $376 | $380 | +$4 | 7% 55-754 (809) |
GR gregbeastCTR | Nothin'Hereavg 7¢ | $209.95 | $180 | -$29.95 | 0% 0-99 (99) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 5¢ | $11.4 | $13.67 | +$2.28 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 5¢ | $1 | $1.2 | +$0.2 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$9,540.75
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$205.11
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$1,520
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
7%
5-68 (73)
Invested
$376
Value
$380
PnL
+$4
Record
7%
55-754 (809)
Invested
$209.95
Value
$180
PnL
-$29.95
Record
0%
0-99 (99)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$13.67
PnL
+$2.28
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.