Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Dplus KIA, while the market favors Bilibili Gaming (52%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Dplus KIA (33%) · Dplus KIA at 49¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Dplus KIA
6
Dplus KIA 33%
$8.1K
-$55.52
48.2¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDplus KIA at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 254321758 | Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$25 | 69% 451-205 (656) |
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR | Dplus KIAavg 48.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$20.62 | 57% 1097-822 (1919) |
AM am100CTR | Dplus KIAavg 47.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$12.82 | 55% 1167-944 (2111) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Bilibili Gamingavg 51¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.59 | 55% 1293-1067 (2360) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Bilibili Gamingavg 53¢ | $265 | $257.5 | -$7.5 | 53% 5767-5107 (10874) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢ | $17.16 | $17 | -$0.16 | 47% 13319-14853 (28172) |
Invested
$2,600
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$25
Record
69%
451-205 (656)
Invested
$2,309.74
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$20.62
Record
57%
1097-822 (1919)
Invested
$1,810.06
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$12.82
Record
55%
1167-944 (2111)
Invested
$1,079.69
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.59
Record
55%
1293-1067 (2360)
Invested
$265
Value
$257.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
53%
5767-5107 (10874)
Invested
$17.16
Value
$17
PnL
-$0.16
Record
47%
13319-14853 (28172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
254321758
Bilibili Gaming — $2.6K
0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027
CTRDplus KIA — $2.3K
am100
CTRDplus KIA — $1.8K
TAIWANNUMBERONE
Bilibili Gaming — $1.1K
0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989
Bilibili Gaming — $257.5
38791873984189
Bilibili Gaming — $17