Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dplus KIA, while the market favors Bilibili Gaming (53%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dplus KIA (43%) · Dplus KIA at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 6

Dplus KIA48¢Bilibili Gaming52¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dplus KIA

Consensus Traders

Dplus KIA 43%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$1.69

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dplus KIA48%

Bilibili Gaming53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,635

Combined PnL+$27.75

Dplus KIA3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,611

Combined PnL-$29.45

Bilibili Gaming — 57%Dplus KIA — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBilibili Gaming 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
25 254321758	Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$25	69% 451-205 (656)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Dplus KIAavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$23.4	57% 1097-822 (1919)
AM am100CTR	Dplus KIAavg 47.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.26	55% 1167-944 (2111)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢	$549.08	$554.35	+$5.28	67% 41-20 (61)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Bilibili Gamingavg 53¢	$265	$262.5	-$2.5	53% 5767-5107 (10874)
38 38791873984189<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 52.5¢	$41.5	$41.48	-$0.02	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
PL pltrkr111CTR<$100	Dplus KIAavg 47¢	$19.39	$19.59	+$0.21	54% 749-630 (1379)

254321758

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$2,600

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$25

Record

69%

451-205 (656)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Dplus KIA

Invested

$2,246.4

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$23.4

Record

57%

1097-822 (1919)

am100CTR

Dplus KIA

Invested

$1,378.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.26

Record

55%

1167-944 (2111)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$549.08

Value

$554.35

PnL

+$5.28

Record

67%

41-20 (61)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$265

Value

$262.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

5767-5107 (10874)

38791873984189<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$41.5

Value

$41.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

pltrkr111CTR<$100

Dplus KIA

Invested

$19.39

Value

$19.59

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

749-630 (1379)

Research grade

NeutralDplus KIA at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dplus KIA

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Dplus KIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBilibili Gaming 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dplus KIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.