Games Total: O/U 4.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 65¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 9

Over36¢Under64¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$26

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares8,244

Combined PnL-$65.5

Over3 traders

Total Value$885.34

Total Shares2,494

Combined PnL+$39.5

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Underavg 65.6¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$60.05	58% 1179-871 (2050)
NO Novelty8ARB<$100	Underavg 64¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$32.38	71% 682-277 (959)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$16.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 35¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.81
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 66¢	$1,000	$977.27	-$22.73	55% 824-676 (1500)
vtcchampion52CTR	Overavg 34¢	$749.55	$782.62	+$33.07	49% 1302-1349 (2651)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Underavg 63¢	$306.01	$313.3	+$7.29	50% 1364-1340 (2704)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 64¢	$256	$258	+$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Underavg 62.4¢	$210.77	$218.01	+$7.24	41% 3599-5103 (8702)
AM ameisgoat11	Underavg 64¢	$99.48	$100.23	+$0.75	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$86.64	$93.2	+$6.56	54% 293-245 (538)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$9.65	$9.52	-$0.13	50% 23433-23429 (46862)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Under

Invested

$3,510.8

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$60.05

Record

58%

1179-871 (2050)

Novelty8ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,227.93

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.38

Record

71%

682-277 (959)

Both legs:

Under$2,121.2764¢+$16.57

Over$1,106.6635¢+$15.81

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$977.27

PnL

-$22.73

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

vtcchampion52CTR

Over

Invested

$749.55

Value

$782.62

PnL

+$33.07

Record

49%

1302-1349 (2651)

Gooooooollllllllll

Under

Invested

$306.01

Value

$313.3

PnL

+$7.29

Record

50%

1364-1340 (2704)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$256

Value

$258

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Under

Invested

$210.77

Value

$218.01

PnL

+$7.24

Record

41%

3599-5103 (8702)

ameisgoat11

Under

Invested

$99.48

Value

$100.23

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86.64

Value

$93.2

PnL

+$6.56

Record

54%

293-245 (538)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.65

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.