Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Games Total: O/U 3.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 27¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 9

Over74¢Under26¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$603.26

Smart Money Entry

25.3¢ → 26.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares57,668

Combined PnL+$689.85

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,576

Combined PnL-$86.59

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vtcchampion52CTR	Underavg 25.6¢	$5.5K	$5.7K	+$187.83	49% 1302-1349 (2651)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR	Underavg 24¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	+$400	54% 293-245 (538)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Underavg 26¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$52.93	50% 1364-1340 (2704)
SU suleng66	Overavg 76¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$65.79	64% 219-124 (343)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 26¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$22.11	55% 824-676 (1500)
nigiri99	Overavg 75.8¢	$694.66	$674	-$20.66	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Underavg 26¢	$638.82	$651.11	+$12.29	58% 1179-871 (2050)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 26¢	$638.38	$650.65	+$12.28	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Underavg 24.8¢	$51.62	$55.12	+$3.5	41% 3599-5103 (8702)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$28.29	$27.22	-$1.08	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
HTcable<$100	Overavg 74¢	$20.57	$20.43	-$0.14	96% 110-4 (114)

vtcchampion52CTR

Under

Invested

$5,496.77

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$187.83

Record

49%

1302-1349 (2651)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR

Under

Invested

$3,839.98

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$400

Record

54%

293-245 (538)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Under

Invested

$2,748.36

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$52.93

Record

50%

1364-1340 (2704)

suleng66

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$65.79

Record

64%

219-124 (343)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$1,149.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$22.11

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$694.66

Value

$674

PnL

-$20.66

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Under

Invested

$638.82

Value

$651.11

PnL

+$12.29

Record

58%

1179-871 (2050)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$638.38

Value

$650.65

PnL

+$12.28

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.62

Value

$55.12

PnL

+$3.5

Record

41%

3599-5103 (8702)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.29

Value

$27.22

PnL

-$1.08

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

HTcable<$100

Over

Invested

$20.57

Value

$20.43

PnL

-$0.14

Record

96%

110-4 (114)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.