LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winner

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (20%) · Bilibili Gaming at 55¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming55¢T145¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 20%

Total Value

$59.9K

Combined PnL

-$512.97

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming55%

T146%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming3 traders

Total Value$34.0K

Total Shares61,446

Combined PnL+$19.98

T112 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares57,852

Combined PnL-$532.95

Bilibili Gaming — 20%T1 — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
howard22222	Bilibili Gamingavg 55.6¢	$30.8K	$30.7K	-$69.08	41% 131-187 (318)
vtcchampion52CTR	T1avg 46¢	$13.8K	$13.3K	-$450	49% 1302-1349 (2651)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR	T1avg 44.8¢	$7.9K	$7.8K	-$56.86	67% 56-27 (83)
25 254321758	Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$89.9	68% 475-220 (695)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	T1avg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$24.95	58% 1179-871 (2050)
PL pltrkr111CTR	T1avg 47¢	$999.97	$989.34	-$10.64	55% 824-676 (1500)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR	T1avg 45¢	$576	$582.4	+$6.4	54% 293-245 (538)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	T1avg 46¢	$325.86	$329.4	+$3.54	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	T1avg 46¢	$184	$182	-$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
GH ghorrockCTR	T1avg 45.2¢	$173.15	$174.17	+$1.02	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
38 38791873984189CTR	T1avg 45.2¢	$147.95	$136.04	+$0.97	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 54¢	$91.58	$92.27	-$0.84	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
realbengvirCTR<$100	T1avg 46.2¢	$13.59	$13.08	-$0.51	65% 41-22 (63)
nigiri99CTR<$100	T1avg 46¢	$11.04	$11.16	+$0.12	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
YO yong32CTR<$100	T1avg 47¢	$4.69	$4.64	-$0.05	69% 62-28 (90)

howard22222

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$30,760.66

Value

$30.7K

PnL

-$69.08

Record

41%

131-187 (318)

vtcchampion52CTR

Invested

$13,799.93

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$450

Record

49%

1302-1349 (2651)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR

Invested

$7,887.09

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$56.86

Record

67%

56-27 (83)

254321758

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$3,116.68

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$89.9

Record

68%

475-220 (695)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Invested

$2,350.36

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$24.95

Record

58%

1179-871 (2050)

pltrkr111CTR

Invested

$999.97

Value

$989.34

PnL

-$10.64

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR

Invested

$576

Value

$582.4

PnL

+$6.4

Record

54%

293-245 (538)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$325.86

Value

$329.4

PnL

+$3.54

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$184

Value

$182

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$173.15

Value

$174.17

PnL

+$1.02

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$147.95

Value

$136.04

PnL

+$0.97

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$91.58

Value

$92.27

PnL

-$0.84

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

realbengvirCTR<$100

Invested

$13.59

Value

$13.08

PnL

-$0.51

Record

65%

41-22 (63)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

yong32CTR<$100

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.05

Record

69%

62-28 (90)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.