Games Total: O/U 4.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 67¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Over34¢Under66¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$138.54

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 66.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,643

Combined PnL-$138.54

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.34

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Underavg 69.2¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$98.18	—
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 68.8¢	$999.99	$965.95	-$34.04	1% 6-508 (514)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Underavg 67.4¢	$968.29	$954.94	-$13.35	39% 1005-1573 (2578)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927<$100	Underavg 62¢	$86.75	$93.05	+$6.3	55% 233-190 (423)
vtcchampion52<$100	Underavg 64¢	$18.99	$19.73	+$0.74	48% 838-894 (1732)
NO Novelty8CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.34	$1.34	+$0	1% 2-155 (157)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Under

Invested

$2,482.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$98.18

Record

—

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$999.99

Value

$965.95

PnL

-$34.04

Record

6-508 (514)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Under

Invested

$968.29

Value

$954.94

PnL

-$13.35

Record

39%

1005-1573 (2578)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927<$100

Under

Invested

$86.75

Value

$93.05

PnL

+$6.3

Record

55%

233-190 (423)

vtcchampion52<$100

Under

Invested

$18.99

Value

$19.73

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

838-894 (1732)

Novelty8CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0

Record

2-155 (157)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.