Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Games Total: O/U 3.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 28¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Over73¢Under27¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$36.77

Smart Money Entry

27.7¢ → 27.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,886

Combined PnL+$18.86

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares8,061

Combined PnL-$55.63

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO notgoodluck	Overavg 72¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$18.86	62% 185-112 (297)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 28¢	$999.99	$964.28	-$35.71	1% 6-508 (514)
vtcchampion52CTR	Underavg 27¢	$497.19	$497.19	-$0	48% 838-894 (1732)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Underavg 28.9¢	$527.99	$493.02	-$34.97	—
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR	Underavg 24¢	$139.68	$157.14	+$17.46	55% 233-190 (423)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$67.27	$64.87	-$2.4	39% 1005-1573 (2578)

notgoodluck

Over

Invested

$1,357.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$18.86

Record

62%

185-112 (297)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$999.99

Value

$964.28

PnL

-$35.71

Record

6-508 (514)

vtcchampion52CTR

Under

Invested

$497.19

Value

$497.19

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

838-894 (1732)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Under

Invested

$527.99

Value

$493.02

PnL

-$34.97

Record

—

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR

Under

Invested

$139.68

Value

$157.14

PnL

+$17.46

Record

55%

233-190 (423)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.27

Value

$64.87

PnL

-$2.4

Record

39%

1005-1573 (2578)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.