Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 92¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 15

Over92¢Under8¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 91.5¢

+90% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares20,925

Combined PnL+$265.06

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares18,055

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Overavg 48¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$0	42% 607-844 (1451)
NO Novelty8ARB<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$96.98	7% 13-163 (176)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$35.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.8¢	$863.03	$924.93	+$61.89
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Underavg 52¢	$9.4K	$1.3K	$-6.7K	16% 25-128 (153)
HG HGJGJPQ8	Overavg 49¢	$556.64	$785.57	+$236.36	— 2-1 (3)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 47¢	$875.38	$656.1	+$18.76	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
rafaleaooCTR	Underavg 49¢	$574.48	$597.92	+$23.45	4% 25-649 (674)
VV VVVSSP	Overavg 50¢	$532.91	$517.87	-$15.04	33% 36-72 (108)
NE newwmanARB<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$4.5K	$342.33	-$722.55	53% 371-330 (701)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$90.65	$205.61	+$114.97
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$1.1K	$136.72	-$837.52
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$73.49	$73.49	-$0	— 13-6 (19)
Anjun<$100	Overavg 50¢	$32.7	$31.39	-$1.31	79% 1554-425 (1979)
polaroid14CTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$13.7	$13.58	-$0.12	32% 8-17 (25)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$10	$11.63	+$1.63	41% 471-687 (1158)
TA taemaxx	Overavg 50¢	$605.5	$2.55	+$45.05	68% 19-9 (28)

BreakTheBank

Over

Invested

$9,004.48

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

607-844 (1451)

Novelty8ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,167.64

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$96.98

Record

13-163 (176)

Both legs:

Under$1,304.650.6¢+$35.09

Over$863.0344.8¢+$61.89

ubetteruuuuCTR

Under

Invested

$9,412

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

16%

25-128 (153)

HGJGJPQ8

Over

Invested

$556.64

Value

$785.57

PnL

+$236.36

Record

—

2-1 (3)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$875.38

Value

$656.1

PnL

+$18.76

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

rafaleaooCTR

Under

Invested

$574.48

Value

$597.92

PnL

+$23.45

Record

25-649 (674)

VVVSSP

Over

Invested

$532.91

Value

$517.87

PnL

-$15.04

Record

33%

36-72 (108)

newwmanARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,460.25

Value

$342.33

PnL

-$722.55

Record

53%

371-330 (701)

Both legs:

Over$90.6541¢+$114.97

Under$1,056.3354.1¢-$837.52

sbimbgCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.49

Value

$73.49

PnL

-$0

Record

—

13-6 (19)

Anjun<$100

Over

Invested

$32.7

Value

$31.39

PnL

-$1.31

Record

79%

1554-425 (1979)

polaroid14CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.7

Value

$13.58

PnL

-$0.12

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$1.63

Record

41%

471-687 (1158)

taemaxx

Over

Invested

$605.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$45.05

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.