Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Game 4: Duration Over/Under 32:30 min?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

-$278.51

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares26,388

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Over7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares6,898

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbgCTR	Underavg 42.5¢	$9.0K	$7.6K	$-1.4K	— 13-6 (19)
YI yishiwucheng	Overavg 54¢	$2.0K	$3.1K	+$1.0K	58% 94-67 (161)
NO Novelty8CTR	Underavg 44.2¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$369.75	7% 13-163 (176)
7V 7ViziCapitale	Overavg 56.1¢	$887.76	$662.43	+$140.66	— 4-9 (13)
4d9a879611D994FD9B56	Overavg 56¢	$560	$615	+$55	33% 8-16 (24)
LhordGryffin	Overavg 86.7¢	$364	$411.6	+$47.6	100% 36-0 (36)
LI lissartter	Overavg 56¢	$207.16	$236.75	+$29.59	38% 14-23 (37)
PA pauleta23	Overavg 99¢	$226.28	$225.14	-$1.14	41% 471-687 (1158)
rafaleaooCTR	Underavg 37¢	$226.11	$186.39	-$39.72	4% 25-649 (674)
SU suntori	Overavg 60.7¢	$118.72	$128.99	+$10.27	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
TA taemaxxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$761.37	$63.08	+$168.7	68% 19-9 (28)

sbimbgCTR

Under

Invested

$8,973.48

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

—

13-6 (19)

yishiwucheng

Over

Invested

$2,009.34

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

58%

94-67 (161)

Novelty8CTR

Under

Invested

$2,186.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$369.75

Record

13-163 (176)

7ViziCapitale

Over

Invested

$887.76

Value

$662.43

PnL

+$140.66

Record

—

4-9 (13)

4d9a879611D994FD9B56

Over

Invested

$560

Value

$615

PnL

+$55

Record

33%

8-16 (24)

LhordGryffin

Over

Invested

$364

Value

$411.6

PnL

+$47.6

Record

100%

36-0 (36)

lissartter

Over

Invested

$207.16

Value

$236.75

PnL

+$29.59

Record

38%

14-23 (37)

pauleta23

Over

Invested

$226.28

Value

$225.14

PnL

-$1.14

Record

41%

471-687 (1158)

rafaleaooCTR

Under

Invested

$226.11

Value

$186.39

PnL

-$39.72

Record

25-649 (674)

suntori

Over

Invested

$118.72

Value

$128.99

PnL

+$10.27

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

taemaxxCTR

Under

Invested

$761.37

Value

$63.08

PnL

+$168.7

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.