Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 92¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15

Over92¢Under8¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 91.5¢

+76% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares10,133

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,907

Combined PnL+$159.65

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789	Overavg 50.2¢	$3.7K	$4.3K	+$648.11	8% 5-56 (61)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Underavg 51.6¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$142.83	16% 25-128 (153)
SU suntori	Overavg 60.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$398.75	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$961.18	$1.2K	+$255	33% 36-72 (108)
Anjun	Overavg 49¢	$779.1	$400.07	-$18.89	79% 1554-425 (1979)
PA pauleta23CTR	Underavg 65.8¢	$209.53	$211.77	+$2.24	41% 467-682 (1149)
TA taemaxx<$100	Overavg 55¢	$83.18	$84.69	+$1.51	68% 19-9 (28)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$23.68	$23.68	-$0	— 13-6 (19)
NE newwmanCTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$242.89	$2.48	-$240.42	53% 371-330 (701)

0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789

Over

Invested

$3,683.98

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$648.11

Record

5-56 (61)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Under

Invested

$3,118.23

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$142.83

Record

16%

25-128 (153)

suntori

Over

Invested

$1,224.32

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$398.75

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

VVVSSPCTR

Under

Invested

$961.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$255

Record

33%

36-72 (108)

Anjun

Over

Invested

$779.1

Value

$400.07

PnL

-$18.89

Record

79%

1554-425 (1979)

pauleta23CTR

Under

Invested

$209.53

Value

$211.77

PnL

+$2.24

Record

41%

467-682 (1149)

taemaxx<$100

Over

Invested

$83.18

Value

$84.69

PnL

+$1.51

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.68

Value

$23.68

PnL

-$0

Record

—

13-6 (19)

newwmanCTR

Under

Invested

$242.89

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$240.42

Record

53%

371-330 (701)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.