Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$96.91

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 99.5¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,312

Combined PnL+$21.49

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL-$118.4

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO Novelty8ARB<$100	Overavg 66¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.98	7% 13-163 (176)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66¢	$710.47	$710.47	-$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 33¢	$357.32	$368.3	+$10.98
SB sbimbgCTR	Underavg 33¢	$576.17	$593.33	+$17.17	— 13-6 (19)
DM Dmi47CTR	Underavg 34¢	$400	$400	+$0	— 0-4 (4)
SU suntori	Overavg 69¢	$572.36	$395.89	-$176.48	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
NE newwman	Overavg 66.3¢	$907.62	$333.77	+$55.99	53% 371-330 (701)
BR BreakTheBank	Overavg 66¢	$309.41	$309.41	-$0	42% 607-844 (1451)
HG HGJGJPQ8	Overavg 65¢	$135.85	$137.94	+$2.09	— 2-1 (3)
PA pauleta23CTR	Underavg 51.6¢	$110	$104.97	-$5.03	41% 467-682 (1149)
TA taemaxxCTR	Underavg 29¢	$411.59	$81.89	+$8.64	68% 19-9 (28)
GA gaclfzCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$11.41	$12.13	+$0.71	11% 21-168 (189)

Novelty8ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,067.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.98

Record

13-163 (176)

Both legs:

Over$710.4766¢-$0

Under$357.3233¢+$10.98

sbimbgCTR

Under

Invested

$576.17

Value

$593.33

PnL

+$17.17

Record

—

13-6 (19)

Dmi47CTR

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$400

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-4 (4)

suntori

Over

Invested

$572.36

Value

$395.89

PnL

-$176.48

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

newwman

Over

Invested

$907.62

Value

$333.77

PnL

+$55.99

Record

53%

371-330 (701)

BreakTheBank

Over

Invested

$309.41

Value

$309.41

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

607-844 (1451)

HGJGJPQ8

Over

Invested

$135.85

Value

$137.94

PnL

+$2.09

Record

—

2-1 (3)

pauleta23CTR

Under

Invested

$110

Value

$104.97

PnL

-$5.03

Record

41%

467-682 (1149)

taemaxxCTR

Under

Invested

$411.59

Value

$81.89

PnL

+$8.64

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

gaclfzCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.41

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$0.71

Record

11%

21-168 (189)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.