LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (20%) · Gen.G at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Gen.G
5
Gen.G 20%
$3.0K
-$96.44
Research grade
NeutralGen.G at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Gen.Gavg 60.3¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$100.95 | — |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | Bilibili Gamingavg 41.5¢ | $342.43 | $346.5 | +$4.07 | 0% 0-27 (27) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 41.3¢ | $34.75 | $35.19 | +$0.44 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 41.2¢ | $18.53 | $18.54 | +$0.01 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
NO Novelty8CTR<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 42¢ | $4.62 | $4.62 | +$0 | 3% 4-155 (159) |
Invested
$2,669.74
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$100.95
Record
—
Invested
$342.43
Value
$346.5
PnL
+$4.07
Record
0%
0-27 (27)
Invested
$34.75
Value
$35.19
PnL
+$0.44
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$18.54
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
4-155 (159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.