Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over68¢Under32¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$31.74

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 67.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,330

Combined PnL+$28.28

Under5 traders

Total Value$133.97

Total Shares411

Combined PnL+$3.45

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbg	Overavg 67¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$19.84	— 11-4 (15)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Underavg 32.6¢	$747.14	$753.83	+$6.69	38% 14-23 (37)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.6¢	$544.11	$550.8	+$6.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 67¢	$203.03	$203.03	+$0
SU suntori	Overavg 68¢	$285.71	$287.81	+$2.1	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
HG HGJGJPQ8	Overavg 65¢	$114.4	$120.56	+$6.16	— 2-1 (3)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$95.9	$97.4	+$1.5	46% 517-595 (1112)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$27.28	$29.04	+$1.76	60% 498-338 (836)
NO Novelty8CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$4.71	$4.85	+$0.15	7% 13-163 (176)
TA taemaxx<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.43	+$0.18	68% 19-9 (28)
GA gaclfzCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$1.35	$1.43	+$0.09	9% 17-167 (184)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.29	$1.25	-$0.04	42% 2638-3679 (6317)

sbimbg

Over

Invested

$1,389.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$19.84

Record

—

11-4 (15)

lissartterARB<$100

Under

Invested

$747.14

Value

$753.83

PnL

+$6.69

Record

38%

14-23 (37)

Both legs:

Under$544.1132.6¢+$6.69

Over$203.0367¢+$0

suntori

Over

Invested

$285.71

Value

$287.81

PnL

+$2.1

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

HGJGJPQ8

Over

Invested

$114.4

Value

$120.56

PnL

+$6.16

Record

—

2-1 (3)

GooooooollllllllllCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.9

Value

$97.4

PnL

+$1.5

Record

46%

517-595 (1112)

ndb1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.28

Value

$29.04

PnL

+$1.76

Record

60%

498-338 (836)

Novelty8CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

13-163 (176)

taemaxx<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.18

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

gaclfzCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.09

Record

17-167 (184)

e46m3CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.04

Record

42%

2638-3679 (6317)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.