Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 58¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 15

Over58¢Under42¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

-$637.27

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 58¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,913

Combined PnL+$256.67

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares14,973

Combined PnL-$893.94

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Overavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$57.27	42% 607-844 (1451)
Neimuking	Overavg 55¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$25	35% 13-24 (37)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Underavg 52¢	$2.9K	$2.3K	-$577.5	16% 25-128 (153)
rafaleaooCTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$317.6	4% 24-649 (673)
0X 0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789	Overavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$26.53	8% 5-56 (61)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$40.36	—
NE newwmanCTR	Underavg 45¢	$2.1K	$933.5	+$63.02	53% 371-330 (701)
cs2.quant	Overavg 49¢	$500	$647.96	+$147.96	19% 21-91 (112)
Anjun	Overavg 48¢	$2.7K	$205.38	+$51.27	79% 1554-425 (1979)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 51.9¢	$133.27	$88.86	-$20.17	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
HG HGJGJPQ8<$100	Overavg 47¢	$40.1	$41.81	+$1.71	— 2-1 (3)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$20	$18.67	-$1.33	40% 442-667 (1109)

BreakTheBank

Over

Invested

$2,748.86

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$57.27

Record

42%

607-844 (1451)

Neimuking

Over

Invested

$2,749.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$25

Record

35%

13-24 (37)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Under

Invested

$2,860

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$577.5

Record

16%

25-128 (153)

rafaleaooCTR

Under

Invested

$2,516.61

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$317.6

Record

24-649 (673)

0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789

Over

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$26.53

Record

5-56 (61)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Under

Invested

$1,049.36

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$40.36

Record

—

newwmanCTR

Under

Invested

$2,121.89

Value

$933.5

PnL

+$63.02

Record

53%

371-330 (701)

cs2.quant

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$647.96

PnL

+$147.96

Record

19%

21-91 (112)

Anjun

Over

Invested

$2,666.38

Value

$205.38

PnL

+$51.27

Record

79%

1554-425 (1979)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$133.27

Value

$88.86

PnL

-$20.17

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

HGJGJPQ8<$100

Over

Invested

$40.1

Value

$41.81

PnL

+$1.71

Record

—

2-1 (3)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$18.67

PnL

-$1.33

Record

40%

442-667 (1109)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 58%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.