Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 32¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$6.3K
-$203.58
33.3¢ → 32¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
53h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AnjunCTR | Underavg 33¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$55.55 | 79% 1553-425 (1978) |
NO Novelty8CTR | Underavg 34¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$99.52 | 7% 13-163 (176) |
 rafaleaooCTR | Underavg 33.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$60 | 3% 23-648 (671) |
SU suntori | Overavg 66.9¢ | $710.75 | $721.92 | +$11.17 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
LI lissartter | Overavg 68¢ | $402.9 | $402.9 | +$0 | 40% 14-21 (35) |
TA taemaxxCTR | Underavg 32¢ | $192 | $192 | +$0 | 67% 18-9 (27) |
TI timetowander<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $28.14 | $28.56 | +$0.42 | 45% 359-445 (804) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $3.35 | $3.25 | -$0.1 | 52% 1661-1516 (3177) |
AnjunCTRInvested
$1,833.15
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$55.55
Record
79%
1553-425 (1978)
Invested
$1,715.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$99.52
Record
7%
13-163 (176)
rafaleaooCTRInvested
$1,659.98
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$60
Record
3%
23-648 (671)
Invested
$710.75
Value
$721.92
PnL
+$11.17
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Invested
$402.9
Value
$402.9
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
14-21 (35)
Invested
$192
Value
$192
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
18-9 (27)
Invested
$28.14
Value
$28.56
PnL
+$0.42
Record
45%
359-445 (804)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
1661-1516 (3177)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.