Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (67%) · Bilibili Gaming at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Gen.G20¢Bilibili Gaming80¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$13

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Gen.G20%

Bilibili Gaming81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,453

Combined PnL+$22.13

Gen.G2 traders

Total Value$634.51

Total Shares3,254

Combined PnL-$9.13

Bilibili Gaming — 67%Gen.G — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBilibili Gaming 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Bilibili Gamingavg 79¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$22.49	0% 0-27 (27)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b	Bilibili Gamingavg 80.5¢	$483.41	$483.41	+$0	— 3-1 (4)
BA BabooouCTR	Gen.Gavg 19¢	$374.09	$383.93	+$9.84	— 4-2 (6)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Bilibili Gamingavg 80.6¢	$272.86	$272.57	-$0.29	39% 1060-1645 (2705)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Gen.Gavg 21¢	$269.55	$250.57	-$18.97	—
SU suntori<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 81¢	$11.42	$11.35	-$0.07	47% 1401-1566 (2967)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,184.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$22.49

Record

0-27 (27)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$483.41

Value

$483.41

PnL

+$0

Record

—

3-1 (4)

BabooouCTR

Gen.G

Invested

$374.09

Value

$383.93

PnL

+$9.84

Record

—

4-2 (6)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$272.86

Value

$272.57

PnL

-$0.29

Record

39%

1060-1645 (2705)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Gen.G

Invested

$269.55

Value

$250.57

PnL

-$18.97

Record

—

suntori<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.35

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBilibili Gaming 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.