Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 31¢ · $407 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$407.28
$16.15
30.6¢ → 30.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 31¢ | $207.18 | $210.2 | +$3.02 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
97 0x9703...69c2CTR | Noavg 30¢ | $139.14 | $141.46 | +$2.32 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 30.4¢ | $41.6 | $52.06 | +$10.46 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $1.89 | $2.32 | +$0.43 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $1.32 | $1.24 | -$0.08 | 52% 3992-3635 (7627) |
Invested
$207.18
Value
$210.2
PnL
+$3.02
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$139.14
Value
$141.46
PnL
+$2.32
Record
—
Invested
$41.6
Value
$52.06
PnL
+$10.46
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
3992-3635 (7627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.