Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30

Over26¢Under74¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$15.93

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 74¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares6,661

Combined PnL-$17.22

Over1 trader

Total Value$31

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$1.29

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 77.5¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$63.53	66% 199-104 (303)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$46.19	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 75.5¢	$52.81	$52.47	-$0.35	57% 13599-10421 (24020)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 74¢	$34.04	$34.5	+$0.46	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$28.47	$31	+$1.29	52% 3994-3636 (7630)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$3,282.63

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$63.53

Record

66%

199-104 (303)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,688.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$46.19

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$52.81

Value

$52.47

PnL

-$0.35

Record

57%

13599-10421 (24020)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$34.04

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.47

Value

$31

PnL

+$1.29

Record

52%

3994-3636 (7630)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.