Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 75¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 30

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$264.5

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 74.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares14,680

Combined PnL+$281.96

Over2 traders

Total Value$942.49

Total Shares2,117

Combined PnL-$17.47

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 57.8¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$79.74	48% 771-834 (1605)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 55.1¢	$516.37	$608.9	+$92.53	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 45¢	$619.56	$605.79	-$13.77	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 55.2¢	$498.27	$596.07	+$97.8	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
sapupu	Underavg 55¢	$500	$509.09	+$9.09	53% 57-50 (107)
RN1	Underavg 73.8¢	$409.2	$410.1	+$0.9	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$302.52	$336.96	+$38.97	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.1¢	$207.48	$261.88	+$54.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.9¢	$90.86	$75.09	-$15.77
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 46¢	$340.4	$336.7	-$3.7	51% 1405-1351 (2756)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$112.3	$108.28	-$5.84	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$83.7	$78.12	-$5.58
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$28.6	$30.16	-$0.26
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 55.4¢	$49.35	$51.18	+$1.82	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 54¢	$1.08	$1.16	+$0.08	52% 4016-3659 (7675)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$6,730.28

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$79.74

Record

48%

771-834 (1605)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$516.37

Value

$608.9

PnL

+$92.53

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$619.56

Value

$605.79

PnL

-$13.77

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$498.27

Value

$596.07

PnL

+$97.8

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

sapupu

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$509.09

PnL

+$9.09

Record

53%

57-50 (107)

RN1

Under

Invested

$409.2

Value

$410.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$302.52

Value

$336.96

PnL

+$38.97

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

Both legs:

Under$207.4855.1¢+$54.74

Over$90.8636.9¢-$15.77

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$340.4

Value

$336.7

PnL

-$3.7

Record

51%

1405-1351 (2756)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$112.3

Value

$108.28

PnL

-$5.84

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

Both legs:

Invested

$49.35

Value

$51.18

PnL

+$1.82

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.