Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (75%) · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona at 55¢ · $201 held · ends Oct 30

Villarreal CF45¢RCD Espanyol de Barcelona55¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

Consensus Traders

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 75%

Total Value

$200.52

Combined PnL

$4.1

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 55¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRCD Espanyol de Barcelona at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Villarreal CF45%

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona3 traders

Total Value$183.87

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$4.1

Villarreal CF1 trader

Total Value$16.65

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$0

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona — 75%Villarreal CF — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	RCD Espanyol de Barcelonaavg 54.1¢	$193.13	$167.87	+$3.8	58% 41483-30101 (71584)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Villarreal CFavg 45¢	$16.65	$16.65	+$0	50% 6968-6968 (13936)
38 38791873984189<$100	RCD Espanyol de Barcelonaavg 53¢	$7.89	$8.19	+$0.3	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	RCD Espanyol de Barcelonaavg 55¢	$7.81	$7.81	-$0	53% 2145-1905 (4050)

VeryLucky888

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

Invested

$193.13

Value

$167.87

PnL

+$3.8

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$16.65

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6968-6968 (13936)

38791873984189<$100

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

Invested

$7.89

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$0.3

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

Invested

$7.81

Value

$7.81

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

Research grade

NeutralRCD Espanyol de Barcelona at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that RCD Espanyol de Barcelona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.