Villarreal CF leading at halftime?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$3.1K
$363.55
47.3¢ → 65¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 46¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$169.7 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 47.4¢ | $521.23 | $714.89 | +$193.67 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 46¢ | $336.26 | $387.43 | +$51.17 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $381.82 | $326.73 | -$55.09 | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 56¢ | $250.73 | $266.4 | +$15.67 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $120.52 | $106.11 | -$14.41 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.28 | $11.96 | +$2.68 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $6.5 | $6.66 | +$0.16 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,122.7
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$169.7
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$521.23
Value
$714.89
PnL
+$193.67
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$336.26
Value
$387.43
PnL
+$51.17
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$381.82
Value
$326.73
PnL
-$55.09
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
Invested
$250.73
Value
$266.4
PnL
+$15.67
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$120.52
Value
$106.11
PnL
-$14.41
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
Invested
$9.28
Value
$11.96
PnL
+$2.68
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.66
PnL
+$0.16
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.