Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-10-30?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 30

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

-$324.19

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 85.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares24,499

Combined PnL-$488.31

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares21,455

Combined PnL+$164.12

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88¢	$9.3K	$9.0K	-$259.3	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 88¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$28.41	64% 293-164 (457)
AN Anon455	Noavg 88¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$57.05	56% 2860-2289 (5149)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 87¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$104.99	67% 2631-1281 (3912)
LM LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$99.12	— 2-5 (7)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 87.3¢	$1.0K	$980.18	-$38.19	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 88¢	$213.57	$206.11	+$5.54	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
└ No leg	Noavg 88¢	$132	$128.25	-$3.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.8¢	$68.76	$77.86	+$9.29
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$135.3	$186.04	+$50.74	45% 670-829 (1499)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 87.6¢	$130.84	$127.13	-$3.7	52% 13732-12533 (26265)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 86.6¢	$210.48	$125.91	+$3.43	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$35.52	$48.84	+$13.32	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$25.81	$26.8	+$0.99	62% 13685-8540 (22225)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$8.65	-$0.05	51% 1405-1351 (2756)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$6.96	$7.18	+$0.21	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.99	$4.73	-$0.26	53% 719-639 (1358)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.21	$1.16	-$0.05	67% 23277-11683 (34960)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$9,290.5

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$259.3

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$28.41

Record

64%

293-164 (457)

Anon455

Invested

$3,381.46

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$57.05

Record

56%

2860-2289 (5149)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,609.87

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$104.99

Record

67%

2631-1281 (3912)

LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,378.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$99.12

Record

—

2-5 (7)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$1,018.37

Value

$980.18

PnL

-$38.19

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$213.57

Value

$206.11

PnL

+$5.54

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

Both legs:

Invested

$135.3

Value

$186.04

PnL

+$50.74

Record

45%

670-829 (1499)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$130.84

Value

$127.13

PnL

-$3.7

Record

52%

13732-12533 (26265)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$210.48

Value

$125.91

PnL

+$3.43

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.52

Value

$48.84

PnL

+$13.32

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.81

Value

$26.8

PnL

+$0.99

Record

62%

13685-8540 (22225)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1405-1351 (2756)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.96

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

719-639 (1358)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.05

Record

67%

23277-11683 (34960)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.