Will Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$2.0K
$28.81
81.4¢ → 82.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C6 C63AMG | Noavg 81¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$22.17 | 73% 864-326 (1190) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 82¢ | $536.24 | $541.3 | +$5.06 | 45% 670-828 (1498) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 82¢ | $164 | $165 | +$1 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $41 | $41.25 | +$0.25 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $28.69 | $28.87 | +$0.17 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $12.15 | $12.38 | +$0.23 | 47% 2270-2553 (4823) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.36 | $2.23 | -$0.07 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
Invested
$1,197.09
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$22.17
Record
73%
864-326 (1190)
Invested
$536.24
Value
$541.3
PnL
+$5.06
Record
45%
670-828 (1498)
0xheavy888Invested
$164
Value
$165
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
Invested
$41
Value
$41.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$28.69
Value
$28.87
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$12.38
PnL
+$0.23
Record
47%
2270-2553 (4823)
Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.