Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 43¢ · $223 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$223.29
$0.7
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $139 | $142.5 | +$1.5 | 55% 7053-5658 (12711) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $82 | $85 | +$1 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57¢ | $57 | $57.5 | +$0.5 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $66.38 | $52.52 | +$0.78 | 58% 41497-30120 (71617) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.1¢ | $16.24 | $16.2 | -$0.04 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $8.82 | $8.74 | -$0.08 | 53% 2145-1905 (4050) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $3.3 | $3.34 | +$0.04 | 52% 3999-3641 (7640) |
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$139
Value
$142.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
55%
7053-5658 (12711)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$66.38
Value
$52.52
PnL
+$0.78
Record
58%
41497-30120 (71617)
Invested
$16.24
Value
$16.2
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$8.74
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
2145-1905 (4050)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.34
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
3999-3641 (7640)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.