Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-11-06?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.3K
$18.28
77.7¢ → 79.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 77¢ | $501.61 | $514.64 | +$13.03 | 69% 7246-3214 (10460) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 79¢ | $418.11 | $421.19 | +$3.08 | 64% 10065-5621 (15686) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 77¢ | $113.83 | $116.78 | +$0.74 | 51% 37958-37206 (75164) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $72.04 | $74.85 | +$2.81 | 64% 10089-5691 (15780) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $65.39 | $67.09 | +$0.42 | 50% 28600-28435 (57035) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $40.47 | $38.55 | -$1.93 | 48% 7420-7957 (15377) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $19.61 | $19.74 | +$0.12 | 48% 61866-66730 (128596) |
Invested
$501.61
Value
$514.64
PnL
+$13.03
Record
69%
7246-3214 (10460)
Invested
$418.11
Value
$421.19
PnL
+$3.08
Record
64%
10065-5621 (15686)
Invested
$113.83
Value
$116.78
PnL
+$0.74
Record
51%
37958-37206 (75164)
Invested
$72.04
Value
$74.85
PnL
+$2.81
Record
64%
10089-5691 (15780)
Invested
$65.39
Value
$67.09
PnL
+$0.42
Record
50%
28600-28435 (57035)
Invested
$40.47
Value
$38.55
PnL
-$1.93
Record
48%
7420-7957 (15377)
Invested
$19.61
Value
$19.74
PnL
+$0.12
Record
48%
61866-66730 (128596)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.