Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$2.8K
-$156.2
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$172.75 | 49% 19146-19539 (38685) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 56¢ | $940.96 | $932.64 | -$8.32 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 55.9¢ | $279.29 | $302.36 | +$23.08 | 74% 6670-2388 (9058) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $19.6 | $21.18 | +$1.57 | 57% 13799-10572 (24371) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $3.03 | +$0.23 | 48% 2376-2612 (4988) |
Invested
$1,689.15
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$172.75
Record
49%
19146-19539 (38685)
Invested
$940.96
Value
$932.64
PnL
-$8.32
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$279.29
Value
$302.36
PnL
+$23.08
Record
74%
6670-2388 (9058)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$21.18
PnL
+$1.57
Record
57%
13799-10572 (24371)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0.23
Record
48%
2376-2612 (4988)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.