Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$4.2K
$82.47
93¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxi | Overavg 93¢ | $3.1K | $3.3K | +$33.33 | 67% 378-183 (561) |
 Socialista | Overavg 92¢ | $358.8 | $389.81 | +$31.01 | 63% 2725-1611 (4336) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 92¢ | $223.21 | $232.62 | +$9.4 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
MI MinevaJ | Overavg 97¢ | $166.51 | $171.57 | +$5.06 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $42.32 | $45.98 | +$3.66 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $9 | $9.01 | +$0 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$3,099.69
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.33
Record
67%
378-183 (561)
SocialistaInvested
$358.8
Value
$389.81
PnL
+$31.01
Record
63%
2725-1611 (4336)
Invested
$223.21
Value
$232.62
PnL
+$9.4
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$166.51
Value
$171.57
PnL
+$5.06
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
Invested
$42.32
Value
$45.98
PnL
+$3.66
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.