Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$4.9K
$75.53
98.3¢ → 98.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 98.3¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$76.42 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LO lonmi2511 | Overavg 98.2¢ | $268.09 | $268.91 | +$0.82 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 98.7¢ | $14.61 | $14.59 | -$0.02 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $7.2 | $5.18 | -$1.68 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$4,574
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$76.42
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$268.09
Value
$268.91
PnL
+$0.82
Record
62%
1191-725 (1916)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.61
Value
$14.59
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$5.18
PnL
-$1.68
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.