Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 84¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$904.29

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 84¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,610

Combined PnL+$29.7

Under5 traders

Total Value$311.69

Total Shares2,196

Combined PnL-$933.99

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22	Overavg 85¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$24.44	65% 1236-670 (1906)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$180.04	-$914.52	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 89¢	$85.63	$89.96	+$4.33	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$69.62	$70.8	+$5.31	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 82¢	$50.84	$51.77	+$0.93	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$69.05	$50.6	-$18.45	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$14.05	$7.02	-$7.03	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 40¢	$3.25	$3.25	+$0	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$2.54	$3.24	+$0.69	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22

Over

Invested

$2,077.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$24.44

Record

65%

1236-670 (1906)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$1,094.55

Value

$180.04

PnL

-$914.52

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$85.63

Value

$89.96

PnL

+$4.33

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.62

Value

$70.8

PnL

+$5.31

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$50.84

Value

$51.77

PnL

+$0.93

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.05

Value

$50.6

PnL

-$18.45

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.05

Value

$7.02

PnL

-$7.03

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.54

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.